{"id":55,"date":"2014-04-15T18:58:10","date_gmt":"2014-04-15T18:58:10","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/theredneckeconomist.com\/?p=55"},"modified":"2014-04-17T13:59:25","modified_gmt":"2014-04-17T13:59:25","slug":"is-the-federal-reserve-our-worst-enemy-part-3","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/theredneckeconomist.com\/?p=55","title":{"rendered":"Is the Federal Reserve Our Worst Enemy? Part 3"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>We discussed the role of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) near the end of Part 2.\u00a0\u00a0 If you didn&#8217;t read Part 2, the FOMC is a committee of the Federal Reseve Bank.\u00a0 The members are the 7 members of the Board of Govenors of the Federal Reserve System and 5 members chosen from the 12 Regional Federal Reserve Bank Presidents.\u00a0\u00a0 The Chairman of the FOMC is the public spokesperson for the Committee.<\/p>\n<p>The FOMC&#8217;s mandate from Congress includes three important activities;\u00a0 (1)\u00a0 take action to maintain full employment in the economy of the United States; (2) monitor the financial liguidity of US banks;\u00a0 and (3) to assure the US Economy has sufficient cash and credit to maintain a strong, growing economy.<\/p>\n<p>Until the mid-1950&#8217;s, the FOMC could effectively manage the amount of credit in the US Economy by providing or retracting credit to member banks.\u00a0\u00a0 In the mid-1950&#8217;s, large US corporations started issuing credit cards and making credit services available directly to their customers outside the banking system.\u00a0\u00a0 Credit card companies emerged in the 1960&#8217;s making credit available to consumers regardless of their ability to pay.\u00a0\u00a0 In our opinion, the FOMC lost control of the amount of credit available in the US Economy.\u00a0\u00a0 It has attempted to maintain some control over credit by munipulating interest rates offered to member banks and the credit community.\u00a0\u00a0 Since the financial crisis of 2008, the FOMC took action to stimulate the economy by purchasing bonds through the bond markets to the tune of $85 billion a month.\u00a0\u00a0 This action put cash immediately back into the credit markets.\u00a0\u00a0 What is not known by us rednecks is the\u00a0financial strength\u00a0of the companies, governments, and agencies that owe the debt now to our Federal Reserve System.<\/p>\n<p>We need to look at the history of action by the FOMC to see what &#8220;real&#8221; effect the Committee&#8217;s actions had on our financial system.\u00a0In July, 1990, the FOMC set the Fed Funds rate at 8.00%.\u00a0\u00a0 Interest rates on US Treasury Bonds and Notes were running between 12.00% and 15.00%. \u00a0 The country was realing from the financial collapse of the Savings and Loan industry.\u00a0\u00a0 Savings and Loan institutions were chartered much like banks.\u00a0\u00a0 There were federal and state chartered instutions created to provide federally insured savings accounts to Americans.\u00a0\u00a0 The savings account deposits were then used by the instiutions to make mortgage loans to home buyers.\u00a0 The deposit accounts in the institutions were insured by the Federal Savings and Loan Insurance Corporation (FSLIC) on the same basis as the FDIC insures bank deposit accounts.\u00a0\u00a0 The S &amp; L industry collapsed due to major changes in the\u00a0Tax Reform Act of 1986.\u00a0 The unemployment rate in 1990 was 5.5%.<\/p>\n<p>Mortgage interest rates were in the mid-teens.\u00a0\u00a0 President Reagan and President George H. W. Bush, at the time, recognized the cost of the US debt was impacting the US economy. \u00a0 In 1987, President Reagan appointed Alan Greenspan to be Chairman of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System and Chairman of the FOMC. Mr. Greenspan began to promote lowering the Fed Funds rate in an effort to reduce the cost of interest on the National Debt. \u00a0By December, 1991, the FOMC had lowered the rate to 4.00% and to 3.00% by the end of 1992. During this time period the unemployment rate rose to 7.4%\u00a0by the\u00a0December, 1992.\u00a0 \u00a0In late 1993 and early 1994, the unemployment rate dropped back\u00a0 to 5.5% and the FOMC deemed the economy was in fact recovering and needed to take action to keep inflation in check while trying to control the volume of credit invading the economy from non-banking entities. \u00a0By December, 1994, the Committee raised the rate to 5.50% and maintained the rate at that level through 1999.\u00a0 The U.S. Economy continued to improve with the unemployment rate falling to 4.0% by December, 1999.\u00a0\u00a0 The chart below shows the level of unemployment compared to the Fed Funds rate from 1990-2014.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/theredneckeconomist.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/04\/Fed-Funds-Unemployment1.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-medium wp-image-68\" alt=\"Fed Funds-Unemployment\" src=\"http:\/\/theredneckeconomist.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/04\/Fed-Funds-Unemployment1-300x195.png\" width=\"300\" height=\"195\" srcset=\"https:\/\/theredneckeconomist.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/04\/Fed-Funds-Unemployment1-300x195.png 300w, https:\/\/theredneckeconomist.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/04\/Fed-Funds-Unemployment1-1024x667.png 1024w, https:\/\/theredneckeconomist.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/04\/Fed-Funds-Unemployment1-200x130.png 200w, https:\/\/theredneckeconomist.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/04\/Fed-Funds-Unemployment1-90x58.png 90w, https:\/\/theredneckeconomist.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/04\/Fed-Funds-Unemployment1.png 1038w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 300px) 100vw, 300px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>Chairman Greenspan was highly concerned about the rate of inflation in 1999 while the world awaited the transition into a new millenium. \u00a0In 2000, Greenspan convinced the FOMC to raise the Fed Funds to 6.5%\u00a0and kept\u00a0the rate at that level through the first half of 2001. \u00a0In the Fall of 2001, we experienced the attack on the World Trade Center. Shortly after, several large American corporations gave notice they were bankrupt, namely Enron, WorldCom, Global Crossings, Tyco International, Adelphia Communications along with 16 others.<\/p>\n<p>Was their failure due to incompetent and\/or corrupt management or because of actions by the FOMC. \u00a0 These large corporations were required by the Federal Securities and Exchange Commission to maintain their financial records on the &#8220;mark-to-market&#8221; accounting method. \u00a0 The &#8220;mark-to-market&#8221; accounting method requires that any negoitable security be valued on the books of the company based on \u00a0the contracts market value. \u00a0 Well, in the mid-1990&#8217;s while the Fed Funds rate was in the 3.00% to 4.5%, Enron and the other companies entered into long-term contracts for gas, water, electricity, and other commodities. \u00a0 So, if one buys a long-term contract based on the current interest rate for say $10,000, and the interest rate goes up, the value of the contract goes down in market value. \u00a0When the interest rate in the mid 1990&#8217;s went from 3.00% to 6.5%, that meant the value of a contract purchased in the 1995 would be worth around 50% of its face value in 2001. \u00a0 These corporations had to write down their assets because of an accounting method, not because the contracts were not viable. \u00a0 The same principle holds true for bonds, notes, and mortgages.<\/p>\n<p>Why did we have a near financial collapse in 2001-2002? \u00a0 The Redneck believes it was due to the FOMC raising the Fed Funds rate by more than 200% in 5\u00a0years. \u00a0 How did Greenspan react? \u00a0 The FOMC lowered the Fed Funds Rate by the end of 2001 to 1.75% and to 1.00% by the summer of 2003.<\/p>\n<p>Mr. Greenspan retired in 2004, and Bernard Bernacke took over as Chairman of the Board of Governors and the FOMC. \u00a0 Mr. Bernacke came into office with the expressed goal of raising the Fed Funds rate at least .25% each quarter to hold down the rate of projected inflation which at time was around 2.5-3.0%. \u00a0By the summer of 2006, Mr. Bernacke and the FOMC had raised the rate to 5.25% from the 1.00% in June, 2003. This resulted in the increase of 425.00%. \u00a0I hope by now you are getting the picture.<\/p>\n<p>The mortgage loan made by the Federally insured mortgage loan company got devalued by 425.00%, even though in many cases the borrower continued to make his monthly payment. \u00a0 The bank though had to write down the value of the mortgage on its books by 425.00%. \u00a0 No wonder we had a financial system collapse in 2009.<\/p>\n<p>What did Mr. Bernacke do because of the 2009 financial crisis? \u00a0 He and the FOMC immediate took action to lower the Fed Funds rate to .25% or by 525%. \u00a0 Why dd Citibank, JP Morgan, Bank of America, and smaller banks like Wellsfargo immmediately, in late 2010 andd 2011, report substantial earnings? \u00a0 Because they were able to adjust the carrying value of those mortgages back up erasing the loses they had recorded the previous year. \u00a0 Smaller banks and other financial institutions like Merrill Lynch, Countrywide Mortgage Co., and Lyman Brothers, never got \u00a0the chance because of forced takeovers or closures by the Federal government. \u00a0 GMAC, the financing company of the General Motors, and American Express, converted to be\u00a0banks. \u00a0 Why, to take advantage of the mark-to-market accounting rules for banks and to receive part of the billions of dollars poured into the banking system by the economic stimulus packages passed by the US Congress.<\/p>\n<p>Is the Federal Reserve Bank and the Federal Open Market Committee really looking out for our best interest or is it our worst enemy? \u00a0 We will discuss the expectation for the future in Part 4.<\/p>\n<p>The Redneck Economist, April, 2014<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>We discussed the role of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) near the end of Part 2.\u00a0\u00a0 If you didn&#8217;t read Part 2, the FOMC is a committee of the Federal Reseve Bank.\u00a0 The members are the 7 members of the Board of Govenors of the Federal Reserve System and &hellip; <span class=\"continue-reading\"><a href=\"https:\/\/theredneckeconomist.com\/?p=55\">Continue reading <span class=\"meta-nav\">&rarr;<\/span><\/a><\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[10],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-55","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-federal-reserve-the-devil-or-savior"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/theredneckeconomist.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/55","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/theredneckeconomist.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/theredneckeconomist.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/theredneckeconomist.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/theredneckeconomist.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=55"}],"version-history":[{"count":10,"href":"https:\/\/theredneckeconomist.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/55\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":69,"href":"https:\/\/theredneckeconomist.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/55\/revisions\/69"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/theredneckeconomist.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=55"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/theredneckeconomist.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=55"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/theredneckeconomist.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=55"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}